Extreme Droughts Lead to Record-High Coffee Prices

Extreme weather, including intense droughts, in top coffee-growing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam has led to some of the highest coffee prices in decades.

As Reuters reported, prices for coffee futures reached a 47-year high of $3.3545 per pound for Arabica coffee on the Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) and prices for this commodity rose by around 71% in 2024.

“In the case of Arabica coffee, it is concern about a poor crop in Brazil, the most important producer country, next year due to drought,” said a spokesperson for Germany-based Commerzbank, as reported by Reuters.

Although Arabica coffee is more popular among consumers, Robusta coffee is also seeing record prices, with the cost reaching $5,694 per metric ton in late November. According to the U.S. International Trade Commission, Arabica makes up about 60% to 70% of coffee produced, while Robusta makes up about 30% to 40%.

In September 2024, scientists reported that wildfires and deforestation in the Amazon rainforest were driving the worst drought on record in Brazil. The forest loss means trees are unable to absorb rainfall and release it back into the atmosphere, preventing further rainfall and leading to desertification of formerly green areas.

The drought from land destruction, coupled with wildfires made worse by slash-and-burn agriculture, can both worsen drought and destroy croplands and crop yields, with coffee being particularly vulnerable to reduced yields, Inside Climate News reported.

In June 2024, VOA News reported that Vietnam was experiencing its worst drought in about 10 years, and coffee output was expected to decline by 10% to 16%.

“The drought dried up this whole area and the surrounding areas, and the water shortage is so severe that compared to last year, the harvest of coffee cherries is very low,” said Doan Van Thang, a coffee farmer in the Gia Lai province, as reported by VOA News. “We lost a lot of the output. It’s very small, very low this year.”

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, coffee plants grow best in tropical, humid environments with rich soil and temperatures ranging from around 64 degrees to 70 degrees Fahrenheit. A previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report estimated that rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall could lead to a decrease in the amount of land able to grow coffee in Central America be 38% to 89% by 2050.

In response, companies are already discussing price increases and even downsizing coffee products. In November, Nestle S.A. announced plans to increase the cost of its coffee products and reduce the size of its coffee bags in response to higher coffee bean prices, Yahoo! Finance reported.

The challenges to coffee yields raise concerns for small-scale growers, especially as climate change worsens extreme weather events like heat waves and drought.

“Coffee is the canary in the coal mine for climate change and its effect on agriculture,” Elizabeth Shapiro-Garza, associate professor of environmental policy and management at Duke University, told The Canadian Presse. “If you like your cup of coffee in the morning, climate change is absolutely going to be affecting the quality, the availability and the price of that cup of coffee.”

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Barbados Completes World’s First ‘Debt-for-Climate’ Swap

Barbados has secured the world’s first “debt-for-climate” swap to finance crucial water and sewage projects that will help the island cope with the destructive impacts of climate change.

Through a deal with international funding partners, the Caribbean island nation was able to replace outstanding debt with less expensive financing, which generated a savings of $125 million to be used to increase food security while enhancing water resources management, a press release from the European Investment Bank (EIB) said.

“In the face of the climate crisis, this groundbreaking transaction serves as a model for vulnerable states, delivering rapid adaptation benefits for Barbados. With upfront funding from our partners, we are building a state-of-the-art facility to boost water management, food security, and resilience — showcasing how innovation and cooperation drive environmental and fiscal gains,” Prime Minister Mia Mottley said in the press release.

Countries have been embracing more debt swaps in order to make investment funds available for nature conservation projects, Reuters reported.

The deal sets a climate adaptation financing benchmark, those involved said. It avoids the increasing public debt burden while helping to meet the nearly $360 billion annually the United Nations has said is necessary to assist developing nations with adapting to climate change.

Water availability in Barbados for farming and other activities is far below the global average.

Mottley’s Bridgetown Initiative calls for international financial institutions such as the World Bank to make ever increasing challenges like high debt levels, slower growth and climate change a priority.

Barbados plans to improve its water supply and security by building a New South Coast Water Reclamation and Reuse Facility to provide more than twice the available water by 2050. Additional funding will be put toward mangrove conservation, agricultural resilience and water restoration.

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) and Inter-American Development Bank gave $70 million in loans to start development. An additional grant of $40 million was also provided by GCF.

Through the deal, Barbados was able to buy back nearly $300 million in domestic bonds using a loan provided by Scotiabank of Barbados, RBC Royal Bank and CIBC Caribbean Bank. The loan includes sustainability performance targets which must be met or the government will be subject to financial penalties. The loan is backed by $150 million each from the Inter-American Development Bank and EIB.

“Barbados’ initiative enhances climate resilience and sets a benchmark for sustainable adaptation for the Caribbean. CIBC Caribbean is honored to again collaborate with the Government of Barbados and multilateral agencies like the IDB and EIB in setting precedents for innovative financial mechanisms that drive environmental stewardship in our region. This partnership underscores our commitment to accelerating climate action and fostering sustainable development across the Caribbean,” said Mark St. Hill, chief executive officer of CIBC Caribbean, in the press release.

Part of the European Union’s Global Gateway project, the guarantee from EIB is an attempt to attract countries from the Global South that have been relying on China’s Belt & Road Initiative for infrastructure funding.

“Debt-for-climate conversions can support responses to two overlapping crises: constraining debt and the escalating climate emergency. The Green Climate Fund is a proud partner of Barbados in bringing a coalition of financiers together, all backing an innovative financial instrument aimed at helping the island nation achieve its development and climate goals,” said Mafalda Duarte, executive director of GCF, in the press release.

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COP16 to Address Global Land Degradation and Desertification Begins in Saudi Arabia

Following the recent United Nations biodiversity and climate conferences, the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) began Monday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, with the goal of tackling drought, desertification and land degradation.

The UN has found that, in order to restore the planet’s degraded lands and prevent desertification, an investment of at least $2.6 trillion will be needed by 2030.

“We depend on our land for survival. Yet, we treat it like dirt,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a press release from UNCCD.

The 12-day summit seeks to respond to drought in the face of climate change while protecting and restoring the world’s lands. The most recent previous UNCCD meeting — in 2022 in the Ivory Coast — yielded a promise for “accelerating the restoration of one billion hectares of degraded land by 2030,” reported AFP.

Saudi Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture Abdulrahman Abdulmohsen Al Fadley speaks at the opening ceremony of COP16 on Dec. 2, 2024. Wang Dongzhen / Xinhua via Getty Images

“Even if the global geopolitical context overshadows these crucial meetings, this kind of astral conjunction may perhaps lead to concrete decisions,” said Mauro Centritto, a sustainable plant protection expert with Italy’s National Research Council who is representing civil society organizations from Western Europe in Riyadh, as Le Monde reported.

According to Centritto, it is time to “build synergies” to connect the three COP conferences, as global heating is likely to pass the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels established in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

“If we don’t fight together against increasing droughts and advancing land degradation, we will never achieve the goals we have set ourselves to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect flora and fauna,” Centritto added.

At the COP16 gathering of 196 nations and the European Union, UNCCD said 1.5 billion hectares must now be restored by 2030 to combat escalating droughts and other crises, reported AFP.

One day prior to the COP16 conference in Saudi Arabia — a desert nation — a new UNCCD scientific report warned that degraded soils and forest loss were lowering resilience to biodiversity loss and climate change.

“If we fail to acknowledge the pivotal role of land and take appropriate action, the consequences will ripple through every aspect of life and extend well into the future,” Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD executive secretary, said in a press release from the World Meteorological Organization.

The degradation of Earth’s lands disrupts ecosystems while making the land less agriculturally productive, which leads to food shortages and migration.

Land is considered to be degraded when human activities such as deforestation or pollution harm its productivity. When degradation becomes extreme it leads to desertification.

“We are a desert country. We are exposed to the harshest mode of land degradation, which is desertification,” Osama Faqeeha, Saudi Arabia’s deputy environment minister, told AFP.

Saudi Arabia has a target of restoring 40 million hectares, including “several million hectares of land” by the end of the decade, Faqeeha said.

The country has recovered 240,000 hectares of land with methods like prohibiting illegal logging and the expansion of total national parks from less than 20 in 2016 to over 500, according to Faqeeha.

Lands can also be restored through crop rotation, tree planting, the restoration of wetlands and grazing management.

“We found ourselves caught in a vicious cycle that we must break,” Thiaw told the UNCCD conference, as AFP reported. “We can only achieve this if we move beyond the silos that hinder our collective action and if we adopt a holistic approach that recognizes the constant interaction between desertification, biodiversity loss, and the acceleration of climate change.”

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Global Land Degradation Is Expanding by an Area the Size of Egypt per Year, Report Finds

A new report by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), in collaboration with the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), has found that global land degradation is increasing by about 1 million square kilometers per year, nearly the size of Egypt.

The report, “Stepping back from the precipice: Transforming land management to stay within planetary boundaries,” evaluated global land degradation to better understand how land use could impact planetary boundaries. By comparing land degradation within this specific scientific framework, the report authors showed how unsustainable land-system changes can impact other global systems.

In September 2024, PIK released a separate report that warned that we are about to exceed a seventh of nine planetary boundaries, putting the world at risk of surpassing tipping points and threatening the lives of humans and wildlife.

As the “Stepping back from the precipice” report notes, proper land use is essential for climate regulation, biodiversity, healthy freshwater systems and the ability to produce food and water. Further, proper land use is essential to keeping at least seven of the planetary boundaries within safe operating limits. Already, we have passed six boundaries, including land-system change.

According to PIK, original global forest cover is around 60%, while the limit for safe operation requires around 75% of forest cover. As The Guardian reported, total land degradation on Earth is already around 15 million square kilometers (5.8 million square miles), an area larger than Antarctica, which spans around 14.2 million square kilometers (5.5 million square miles). The cost of this degradation is around $6.3 trillion to $10.6 trillion each year, and around 1.2 billion people are already impacted by land degradation.

Now, the world faces continuing land degradation to the tune of an additional 1 million square kilometers (386,102 square miles) each year, PIK and UNCCD warned in the report. According to the report authors, some of the main drivers of expanding land degradation include unsustainable farming practices — which are linked to nearly 90% of forest loss — as well as deforestation and urbanization.

“If we fail to acknowledge the pivotal role of land and take appropriate action, the consequences will ripple through every aspect of life and extend well into the future, intensifying difficulties for future generations,” Ibrahim Thiaw, executive secretary of UNCCD, told The Guardian.

As part of the report, the organizations included several recommendations for urgent actions to minimize and reverse land degradation, such as restoring forests, grasslands and savannahs; investing in sustainable agriculture practices; more sustainably managing freshwater sources; increasing public and private investments in sustainable land use; using sustainable frameworks including the planetary boundaries in policymaking; and pursuing equity and justice in all land use changes.

“These transformative actions hold great potential for addressing land degradation, but their implementation will require an enabling environment, conducive policies, significant investments and an integration of principles of fairness and justice across multiple sectors and scales,” the report concluded.

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Massachusetts Cranberry Bog Hosts Community Solar Plant

The site of a cranberry bog in Carver, Massachusetts now serves double-duty as a community solar plant after receiving Permission to Operate approval on November 26.

The Carver Solar project, owned by New York-based solar developer and operator Syncarpha Capital, sits on 28 acres leased by E.J. Pontiff Cranberries Inc. in an overall 765-acre plot otherwise used for cranberry bogs.

According to Syncarpha Capital, the community solar installation has a 7.1 MW-DC capacity, along with a 4 MW, 2-hour battery storage system, with the generated energy to be shared among local residents and institutions. The energy will be distributed to recipients by energy provider Eversource Energy via the state’s solar incentive program known as Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART).

Around 350 low-income residents, as well as Tufts University and Milton Academy, will receive discounted solar energy credits through the project, which is expected to generate around 9,500 MWh of clean energy in its first year of operation.

The Carver Solar project received Permission to Operate approval on Nov. 26. Syncarpha Capital

In addition to generating solar energy, the Carver Solar project features a battery installation that will help store energy collected from the solar panels, making it easier to meet energy demand during peak times. Ultimately, this helps build grid resilience to power outages.

Another benefit of establishing community solar is that it allows multiple households, businesses and institutions to access clean energy from one source, rather than households needing to pay for individual solar installations. Community solar can make clean energy more accessible, particularly to low-income households.

According to Solar Gardens, an energy provider by Syncarpha Capital, its community solar projects do not require enrollment fees. Instead, participants receive credits toward their energy bills for using the community solar.

The U.S. Department of Energy reported that as of June 2024, there are about 7.87 GW of community solar projects operating in at least 44 states and Washington, DC. Customers receive a median net present value savings of around $0.27 per watt (W-AC), with total savings varying by project.

Community solar can also be beneficial by incorporating dual-purpose land strategies, Syncarpha Capital reported, or by transforming otherwise unused brownfields into clean energy projects. For example, the site of an old landfill in New York was recently transformed into a community solar site, and in Michigan, some former coal sites are being transitioned into solar hubs and wildlife areas.

“The Syncarpha team thrives on tackling challenging projects and delivering innovative solar and storage solutions that benefit communities while respecting and preserving local land use,” said Clifford Chapman, co-founder and CEO of Syncarpha Capital. 

The Carver Solar project is not without controversy, though. As Axios reported, farmers can be skeptical of installing solar on farmland, because it can make it more difficult to operate machinery around solar panels and there are concerns over whether solar could become more profitable than growing food, leading to shortages. 

A local group known as Carver Concerned Citizens expressed concerns particularly over how solar installations could affect cranberry bogs, noting that the wooden poles for solar panel installation may be treated with chromated copper arsenate (CCA). The group said these poles could contaminate the cranberries and local drinking water.

Previously, the group campaigned for the removal of chemically treated poles from separate projects under Pine Gate Renewables. Carver Conservation Commission voted in 2021 for the poles to be removed and replaced by alternatives such as pre-cast concrete, Wicked Local reported.

In response to the rise of solar installations on agricultural lands, Carver Concerned Citizens said in a Facebook post in 2022, “Carver is home to a wide range of small family farms that could be threatened by irresponsible solar development. Let’s make sure that our farms keep producing food!”

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Ocean Advocates Celebrate ‘Huge Win’ as Norway Pauses Deep-Sea Mining Plans

Norway agreed on Sunday to stop the first round of licensing for Arctic deep-sea mining following pressure from the Socialist Left Party (SV), reported The Guardian.

The small leftwing party refused to support the government’s budget if it did not halt deep-sea mining exploration licenses scheduled for next year.

“This puts a stop to the plans to start deep-sea mining until the end of the government’s term,” said SV party leader Kirsti Bergstø, as The Guardian reported.

The announcement came after over a year of pressure from scientists, environmental activists and the international community, a press release from Greenpeace said.

🚨 HUGE WIN – Norway agreed to stop deep sea mining in the Arctic This is a win for global mobilisation and a huge step forward to protect the Arctic This fragile ecosystem is safe from deep sea mining at least until the end of 2025 – and we won’t stop there #StopDeepSeaMining

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— Greenpeace International 🌍 (@greenpeace.org) December 2, 2024 at 8:43 AM

“This is a huge win! After hard work from activists, environmentalists, scientists and fishermen, we have secured a historic win for ocean protection, as the opening process for deep sea mining in Norway has been stopped. The wave of protests against deep sea mining is growing. We will not let this industry destroy the unique life in the deep sea, not in the Arctic nor anywhere else,” said deep-sea mining campaigner Haldis Tjeldflaat Helle with Greenpeace Nordic, in the press release.

At the beginning of 2024, Norway became the first nation to approve commercial deep-sea mining.

According to the country’s coalition government, preparatory work — such as setting regulations and conducting environmental impact assessments — would continue while the licenses were suspended, reported The Guardian.

“This will be a postponement,” Prime Minister of Norway Jonas Gahr Støre, a member of the Labour party, told private broadcaster TV2.

Norway is being sued by WWF over its plans to allow companies to mine an area of more than 100,000 square miles for deep-sea minerals without taking proper measures to adequately investigate the consequences.

The Norwegian Environment Agency said the impact assessment did not provide a sufficient legal or scientific basis for deep-sea mining.

A worldwide moratorium on deep-sea mining has been called for by over 900 ocean scientists.

Earlier this year, Europe’s parliament expressed concern over Norway’s decision to allow the destructive activities and called on Norwegian member states to back a moratorium.

“There will be no announcement of exploration rights for deep-sea mining in 2024 or 2025,” SV said in a statement, as AFP reported.

Norway’s government said a study confirmed that a substantial store of minerals and metals — including copper and rare earth elements — were discovered on its continental shelf. These metals are necessary for the transition away from fossil fuels, it argued.

A 32-member coalition, including France, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Canada and Germany, has called for a deep-sea mining moratorium in international waters.

Greenpeace activists protest against deep-sea mining in the Arctic, on Sept. 20, 2024. Ulrich Perrey / picture alliance via Getty Images

“Millions of people across the world are calling on governments to resist the dire threat of deep sea mining to safeguard oceans worldwide. This is a huge step forward to protect the Arctic, and now it is time for Norway to join over 30 nations calling for a moratorium and be a true ocean champion,” said Louisa Casson, campaigner for Greenpeace International Stop Deep Sea Mining, in the press release.

Deep-sea mining is devastating to marine ecosystems, producing toxic sediment plumes that choke the unique sea life that lives on the bottom of the ocean floor while creating disruptive noise pollution and turning the seabed into a barren wasteland.

“Stopping the Norwegian deep sea mining plans is an important step in stopping this industry from destroying life at the bottom of the sea. Any government that is committed to sustainable ocean management cannot support deep sea mining. It has been truly embarrassing to watch Norway positioning itself as an ocean leader, while planning to give green light to ocean destruction in its own waters,” Helle said in the press release.

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World Leaders Fail to Reach Agreement on Global Plastics Treaty, Plan to Continue Talks

Efforts by nations to come to an agreement on a global plastics treaty failed on Monday. While more than 100 countries sought to put a limit on the world’s plastics production — in addition to tackling recycling and cleanupoil and gas companies were only prepared to address the problem of plastic waste.

The meeting in Busan, South Korea was supposed to be the last, but negotiations will continue into 2025, reported The Associated Press.

“It is clear that there is still persisting divergence,” said Inger Andersen, the United Nations Environment Programme’s executive director, as Reuters reported.

The fifth meeting of the UN Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5) ended with countries still far from establishing the fundamental scope of a global plastics treaty.

Putting a cap on plastic production, the management of “chemicals of concern” used in the plastics making process and plastic products, as well as financing for developing countries in implementing the treaty were the most divisive issues during negotiations.

Panama proposed a path to a worldwide plastic production reduction target, which was supported by more than 100 nations, while an entirely different proposal had no provisions for a cap on production.

According to a Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL) analysis, more than 200 representatives of the chemical and fossil fuel industry attended the talks — the largest group of delegates at the meeting, reported The Guardian.

Sixteen plastics industry lobbyists were present in the delegations from China, Iran, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Egypt, Finland and the Dominican Republic.

A draft revised document released Sunday by Luis Vayas Valdivieso, chair of the meeting, could be the foundation for a treaty, but still included multiple options on the most contentious issues, reported Reuters.

“A treaty that… only relies on voluntary measures would not be acceptable,” said Juliet Kabera, Rwandan Environment Management Authority director general. “It is time we take it seriously and negotiate a treaty that is fit for purpose and not built to fail.”

Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing nations expressed strong opposition to the reduction of plastics production and attempted to delay negotiations with procedural tactics.

“There was never any consensus,” said Al Gwaiz, delegate from Saudi Arabia. “There are a couple of articles that somehow seem to make it (into the document) despite our continued insistence that they are not within the scope.”

According to dataset manager Eunomia, the United States, China, India, Saudi Arabia and South Korea were 2023’s five biggest producers of polymers.

If a treaty could have been established at INC-5, it would have been among the most important environmental protection deals since the Paris Agreement.

During the talks, the U.S., which had expressed support for voluntary production reductions, was accused of not using its sway to press for legally binding actions.

“Despite maintaining in the lead-up to and during the INC that production and chemicals were important measures for the treaty, they refused to… answer the call to join more than 100 countries calling for legally binding measures,” said Rachel Radvany, campaigner for environmental law group CIEL, as reported by The Guardian.

A 2023 report from the UN Environment Programme found more than 3,200 plastic chemicals of concern, which are especially toxic for women and children, Reuters reported.

Plastic production worldwide is on course to triple by mid-century. 

Several negotiators participating in the talks expressed an urgent desire to resume the talks.

“Every day of delay is a day against humanity. Postponing negotiations does not postpone the crisis,” said Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, head of Panama’s delegation, as reported by Reuters. “When we reconvene, the stakes will be higher.”

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Air Fryers Offer Least Polluting Cooking Method, Researchers Find

If you’re looking to keep your indoor air cleaner over the holidays, a new study has found that air fryers emit just a small portion of the indoor air pollutants produced by other cooking methods like pan and deep frying.

Most people spend most of their time — 80 percent — indoors, and cooking is a big contributor to indoor air pollution. The energy efficiency of air fryers has been amply studied, but less is known about their environmental benefits, a press release from England’s University of Birmingham said.

“As expected, oil-based cooking methods produced much more [particulate matter (PM)] and [volatile organic compounds (VOCs)] in the indoor environment than water-based methods,” the authors wrote in the study. “The air fryer generated the least PM emissions.”

Indoor pollutants are a significant health concern and can cause a range of symptoms and chronic conditions like respiratory, cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases.

As their test kitchen, the scientists used a well-controlled campus research kitchen as a compromise between experiments measuring pollution produced by various cooking methods conducted in a laboratory, and testing in the less regulated environment of a domestic kitchen.

For the experiments, the researchers used five different methods to prepare chicken breast: pan frying, deep-fat frying, stir-frying, boiling and air-frying. They then measured the levels of VOCs and PM emitted by each cooking method.

For PM, the research team used micrograms for each cubic meter of air to measure peak concentrations. The peak concentration for pan frying was 92.9, deep frying measured 7.7, stir-frying had a peak concentration of 26.7, boiling came in at 0.7 and air-frying 0.6.

The measurements for VOCs were “parts per billion,” or ppb. Pollution levels were relatively similar to the PM emissions across the variety of cooking methods. The team also identified and quantified certain VOCs emitted most during each activity.

“There are a number of factors that will affect the levels of pollution from cooking alongside the method used, including the amount of oil used, and the temperature of the stove. What we can say with certainty, however, is that improving the ventilation in kitchens by opening windows or using extractor fans, will help to disperse polluting particles and reduce personal exposure,” said lead author of the study Christian Pfrang, a professor of atmospheric science at University of Birmingham, in the press release.

The team kept measuring the pollution emitted for both VOCs and PM following the conclusion of the cooking process. They found that substantially higher pollution levels remained in the kitchen for more than an hour after cooking, even though the preparation only took about 10 minutes.

“It’s also really important to understand that particles will remain in the air for quite some time after you have finished cooking, so continuing to ventilate, or keeping extractor fans turned on for a period of time will really help to avoid the build-up of this indoor pollution and reduce the potential for the pollutants to be transported and distributed throughout the house with the associated higher personal exposures,” Pfrang added.

The study, “Impact of Cooking Methods on Indoor Air Quality: A Comparative Study of Particulate Matter (PM) and Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Emissions,” was published in the journal Indoor Air.

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44% of Experts Surveyed Believe China’s CO2 Emissions Have Already Peaked or Will Peak Next Year

Nearly half of climate experts — 44 percent — believe China’s carbon dioxide emissions may have already peaked, or will peak in 2025 at the latest, according to a new report from think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

China’s carbon emissions are also on track to increase slightly this year, despite fast progress on electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables.

The third edition of the annual report, China’s Climate Transition: Outlook 2024, indicated increasing optimism about China’s green transition, reported The Guardian.

“Clean energy industries have emerged as key drivers of economic growth. As China continues its transition, the benefits are becoming increasingly clear,” said Shi Xunpeng, one of the authors of the report and the president of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies, as The Guardian reported.

The 44 experts from industry and academia surveyed for this year’s report were much more optimistic about China’s carbon emissions peaking by next year than they were during last year’s survey, when just 21 percent had the same opinion.

In the report, CREA reassessed China’s progress toward its climate and emissions commitments aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement, a press release from CREA said.

In response to the question of whether they believed coal consumption in China had peaked, 36 percent of the experts surveyed said yes, compared with 15 percent in 2023. Fifty-two percent of the experts expect the country’s consumption of coal to peak by next year, with just 20 percent saying the peak will occur later.

Coal currently makes up 80 percent of fossil fuel emissions in China, reported The Guardian.

China has set a target of reaching peak carbon emissions by the end of the decade and overall carbon neutrality by 2060. A pledge from Beijing to “strictly control” coal use in the country’s 14th “five-year plan” covers the period up until the end of next year.

“China already plans to reduce its coal consumption after 2026 but this cut will definitely have to be pretty drastic and fast if China wants to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality goal,” said Wang Xiaojun, founder of Manila-based NGO People of Asia for Climate Solutions, as The Guardian reported.

Over the last two years, China has been focusing on renewables industries to rebuild its post-pandemic economy by developing EVs, batteries and solar panels, which have attracted high levels of investment.

The analysts included in the study also looked at whether China can lower its economy’s carbon intensity — or how much carbon dioxide is released in the production of one unit of electricity.

“In order to align with the Paris agreement… China will need to either speed up renewable energy deployment even further or guide economic development in a less energy-intensive direction,” said lead analyst at CREA Lauri Myllyvirta, as reported by The Guardian.

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EVs, Plug-in Hybrids Lead To 11% Emissions Drop for New Vehicles in U.S.: EPA Report

According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 50th annual Automotive Trends Report, model year (MY) 2023 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles have led to an 11% decline in carbon dioxide emissions from new vehicles.

The report noted that fuel economy reached a record high and greenhouse gas emissions from new vehicles reached a record low for MY 2023 vehicles, in part thanks to EVs. 

Further, the report found that all 14 of the major automotive manufacturers were meeting the light-duty greenhouse gas program requirements set by the EPA for the MY 2023 vehicles. The program requires MY 2023 through MY 2026 vehicles to prioritize vehicle technology that reduces pollution and emissions. According to the EPA, the light-duty greenhouse gas program could save more than 3 billion tons of emissions by 2050.

Already, clean vehicle technology, including fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, has made a substantial difference to emissions, the EPA Automotive Trends Report revealed. New MY 2023 vehicles led to a decrease in carbon emissions to 319 grams per mile, a record low. Compared to 20 years ago, the report found that carbon dioxide emissions have declined by 142 grams per mile or around 31%. EVs and plug-in hybrids have been particularly helpful, reducing carbon emissions by 38 grams per mile.

The reduction in carbon emissions has also been accompanied by an increase in vehicle fuel economy, which has risen 40% since MY 2004. For MY 2023 vehicles alone, new vehicle fuel economy reached a record high of 27.1 miles per gallon, according to the EPA.

“This report provides a critical data-driven affirmation that strong, technology-neutral standards can underpin environmental progress while saving drivers money at the pump,” EPA Administrator Michael Regan said in a statement. “Manufacturers continue to innovate and are bringing technologies to market which will directly improve air quality, better protecting people’s health and saving lives.”

The EPA revealed that these vehicle upgrades have made significant improvements in pollution and public health since the agency began recording data in 1975. According to the agency, today’s light-duty vehicles are about 99% cleaner for common pollutants, such as carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides.

These trends are expected to continue as the EPA estimated an increase in electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicle production for MY 2024. According to the report, these vehicles increased to make up 11.5% of vehicle production in MY 2023 from just 6.7% of production for MY 2022, and they could increase again to 14.8% of production for MY 2024.

Although the report brings good news for the EV market, the EPA warned that light-duty vehicles are still contributing a significant amount, around 17%, to total emissions in the U.S. As such, officials said there will need to be more efforts to improve fuel economy and reduce emissions from vehicles.

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