With global average temperatures expected to continue to rise in the coming decades, scientists have projected that warming will significantly harm global agriculture as it weakens crop yields and disrupts food production. Now, new research finds that warming will disrupt many of Earth’s major crops and harm global crop diversity.

The study, conducted by researchers at Aalto University in Finland and published in the journal Nature Food, analyzed 30 of the world’s most important crops and modeled how climate change is likely to affect their safe climatic space under different potential global warming scenarios.

The researchers found that crops growing at lower latitudes, or closer to the equator, will be hardest hit as those areas continue to get hotter and more arid.

Nature Food

Speaking about global crop diversity, Matti Kummu, the senior author who oversaw the study, said diversity will only decline as temperatures rise.

“If we go beyond two degrees of warming,” he told EcoWatch on a video call, “there are really, really drastic impacts on both the diversity and the available crops, especially in the tropics and equatorial region, where it’s already very vulnerable.”

“The loss of diversity means that the range of food crops available for cultivation could decrease significantly in certain areas,” said Sara Heikonen, the study’s lead author, in a press release. “That would reduce food security and make it more difficult to get adequate calories and protein.”

For each of the 30 crops, the researchers established their “safe climatic space,” which can be likened to a Goldilocks zone of optimal growth, using average precipitation, aridity and temperature. Then, the researchers applied four different projected warming conditions for four scenarios: at 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

As warming increases, the researchers found, the safe climatic space for crops tends to move farther and farther away from the equator, and if warming goes beyond 1.5 degrees, it could threaten “up to half” of the world’s crops at lower latitudes, according to a press release.

The findings also beg environmental justice concerns. Because equatorial nations tend to be poorer than countries at higher latitudes, the countries and people least responsible for climate change would pay the highest price with fewer resources to adapt.

“The negative effects are mostly concentrated on the equatorial region,” Heikonen said, which is already at around 1.5 to 2 degrees of warming. “It depends on the region of course, but 25% of the current production might already be at risk even even at the lower warm levels, whereas up here in the North or in the southern parts of the Southern Hemisphere, the negative effects are not that pronounced.”

“In Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia,” she added, “this is a big threat for food security, because in these areas, the population is growing rapidly still, and food supply is already insufficient in some of these places.”

Nature Food

The researchers call for broad mitigation steps to avoid the worst of the consequences on food systems.

“Although climate change will be difficult to just adapt to, we also need to mitigate climate change, but there are things that can be done to support the current production even in the most severely impacted areas,” Heikonen said.

“For example, choosing these kind of under-utilized traditional local crops that might be more climate-resilient, or developing new plant varieties, and then we could develop the agriculture management practices such as irrigation and fertilization, and then there are these more regenerative agriculture practices such as agroforestry.”

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When children are exposed to multiple pesticides, it significantly increases their risk of childhood cancers in comparison to being exposed to just one, according to new research.

The results of the study bring up new concerns that kids are at greater risk from the harmful effects of the toxic substances than once thought, reported The Guardian.

“We observed a statistically significant positive association between the 32 agrichemicals and overall pediatric cancer and subtypes,” the authors of the study wrote. “Dicamba, glyphosate, paraquat, quizalofop, triasulfuron, and tefluthrin largely contributed to the joint association… We observed positive associations between agrichemical mixtures and overall cancer, brain and CNS cancers, and leukemia among children.”

In the first-of-its kind study, researchers examined the association between exposures to multiple commonly used pesticides and the most prevalent childhood cancers. The bulk of earlier research had focused on the toxicity of individual pesticides.

“As individuals, we aren’t just exposed to one chemical, but a mixture, so if you are just studying one chemical alone, then you are not able to capture the exposures – it gives you limited information,” lead author of the study Jabeen Taiba, a postdoctoral research associate with University of Nebraska Medical Center, told The Guardian.

People can become exposed to multiple pesticides through foods such as fish, meat, produce and processed foods, as well as through drinking water. Children living in agricultural communities can also be exposed to contaminated dust, air and water, as well as to pesticide residue inside their homes.

The researchers found that being exposed to a 10 percent mixture of pesticides increased the rate of brain cancer by 36 percent, overall pediatric cancer by 30 percent and leukemia by 23 percent. The cancers are some of the most common in Nebraska, where the study was conducted.

“Among the pesticides considered in the mixture, herbicides contributed the most toward these joint associations,” the authors wrote in the study.

The findings, “Exploring the Joint Association Between Agrichemical Mixtures and Pediatric Cancer,” were published in the journal GeoHealth.

The research team looked at 22 years of cancer data in Nebraska from 2,500 pediatric cases. Located in the country’s agricultural heartland, the state has the second-highest rates of childhood cancer in the U.S., partially because of widespread pesticide use.

Pesticides are particularly harmful to children due to their smaller size and because they are still growing, which means the health risks can be higher at a lower level of exposure.

Taiba said farm workers and those in agricultural communities face the greatest risks, though exposure through food is an underestimated danger to children.

Taiba recommended that people take measures to protect themselves, like investing in effective water filtration systems and buying organic foods when they can, until regulators begin taking the toxicity of multiple substances into account.

Taiba also advised adults working with pesticides to leave their shoes and work clothes outside. Earlier research has found that pesticides brought or tracked into the home represent a major source of exposure for kids.

“These results can help policymakers make better decisions to protect children from pesticide exposure and reduce the pediatric cancer burden,” the study’s authors wrote.

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The Asian hornet, or Vespa velutina, is an invasive species in western Europe that is also known by the name “Asian predatory wasp.” It is a close relative to the Asian giant hornet, or murder hornet, that was first spotted in the U.S. in 2019. Both species have raised immediate concerns for honeybee populations.

Now, scientists have confirmed that the invasive Vespa velutina species can wreak havoc on bees and other critters, as a new study has revealed the presence of more than 1,400 different species in the guts of larval Asian hornets, which depend on the adult hornets for food. 

Researchers investigated the ecological threats from Asian hornets by analyzing the diets and the guts of more than 1,500 samples of hornets found in France, Spain, Jersey and the UK.

They found 1,449 different species total inside the guts of these hornet samples, with the found species including bees and wasps, flies, butterflies and moths, beetles and spiders. The most commonly found species was the Apis mellifera, also known as the western honey bee or European honey bee.

Further, researchers noted that of the 50 most abundant species found in the gut samples, 43 species were those that visit and pollinate flowers. Four of the top 50 included common species of bumblebees. The scientists published their findings in the journal Science of The Total Environment.

Based on these results, the research team has raised concerns over how the invasive Asian hornet could threaten vulnerable species, particularly important pollinators.

“Most insect populations are in decline due to factors such as habitat destruction and chemical pollution. The expanding area inhabited by Asian hornets poses an extra threat,” Siffreya Pedersen, lead author of the study, said in a statement.

Three of the top predated species included the European honey bee, the buff-tailed bumblebee and the red-tailed bumblebee, all of which are essential crop pollinators in Europe. As The Guardian reported, one Asian hornet can kill about 50 bees per day, presenting a serious threat to already vulnerable bee populations. If Asian hornets continue to spread and prey on these pollinators, the authors warned there could be serious and widespread environmental impacts.

While predation of bees and other pollinators is of concern, there could be further ecological disruptions if flies, beetles, spiders, and other organisms become prey to this non-native species of hornets.

“Insects play vital roles in enabling ecosystems to function – including pollination, decomposition and pest control,” Pedersen said. 

According to the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), Asian hornets first came to Europe by accident through a shipment to France in 2004. This species’ predation of bees is well-known, but the latest study reveals that these hornets have a varied diet throughout the year and are also harming populations of other organisms, revealing a broader threat.

“Our study provides important additional evidence of the threat posed by Asian hornets as they spread across Europe,” said Peter Kennedy, co-author of the study and a research fellow at University of Exeter’s Environment and Sustainability Institute.

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Layoffs by the Trump administration at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have reached the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), a small but important institute that is responsible for climate models the world relies on.

Kai-Yuan Cheng, an atmospheric scientist who was notified of his firing late last week, said he rushed to finish his work on severe storm forecasting on one hour’s notice.

“I worked to the last minute of my federal employment,” Cheng said, as Science reported. “I tried my best to wrap up my work before I lost access.”

Cheng and nine other GFDL employees were fired from the Princeton, New Jersey, research center, as part of a far-reaching round of layoffs announced by the Trump administration late last month.

Started in 1955, GFDL is responsible for some of the planet’s most highly regarded climate and weather models. They are relied upon for global heating projections, as well as weather forecasting in the United States.

Several of the workers who were fired were in charge of crucial projects, and it is likely that several GFDL projects — including a new type of atmospheric model — will face delays, as will more accurate regional climate predictions.

Tom Di Liberto, an NOAA climate scientist and public affairs specialist who was laid off, told the American Institute of Physics (AIP) that seven of the 25 employees at the Office of Communications had been fired. Additionally, 11 employees were fired from the Environmental Modeling Center.

“Some would say we were already falling behind some of our modeling, and by firing folks like this here, there’s no way you can catch up,” Di Liberto said in a press release from AIP. “It’s a weird way of making America great.”

Last week, the Trump administration fired from 600 to 900 NOAA employees, most of whom were new or recently promoted “probationary” workers.

The American Meteorological Society earlier this week warned that the firings “are likely to cause irreparable harm and have far-reaching consequences for public safety, economic well-being, and the United States’ global leadership.”

The firings have impacted all of NOAA’s labs, which provide research on subjects as diverse as upper-atmospheric pollution and evidence of global warming in the deepest parts of the ocean, reported Science.

Of special concern to GFDL is the latest version of its atmospheric model, AM5. The new model is designed to run at higher frequencies and resolutions, and allows for the use of long-term climate change code to be used in seasonal weather forecasts. The updates required the reworking of model simulations of factors like rainfall, clouds, gravity waves and stratospheric ozone.

Scheduled to be completed this year, AM5 was expected to be the basis of GFDL’s future climate modeling efforts globally, with applications from United Nations climate change reports to insurance companies.

Sources told Science that two scientists who were central to AM5, including one lead, have been fired. Both had been employed as contractors for many years before they were officially hired.

One had given up their citizenship for the job. The researcher will likely stay on to work at the lab on a volunteer basis, hopeful that AM5 will be completed, with likely delays. The researcher said they left the country of their birth partially due to its authoritarian politics, adding that it was ironic and sad to witness similar dynamics coming to the U.S.

“I feel somewhat helpless. I want to push back. I want to do something,” the researcher said.

Some of the firings could face legal challenges, as happened at the National Science Foundation.

In an indication of possible backtracking, the Trump administration issued new guidelines on Tuesday stating that agencies, rather than the White House Office of Personnel Management, were the ultimate authority on whether to implement the firings.

Chris Bretherton, the atmospheric scientist in charge of nonprofit Ai2’s climate modeling, said it was disheartening to watch future climate research leaders at institutions like GFDL being indiscriminately fired.

“Artificial intelligence,” Bretherton said, “cannot compensate for a lack of human intelligence.”

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A new executive order signed by President Donald Trump over the weekend could have a disastrous effect on endangered species, climate change and local economies, warned conservation groups.

The order encouraging the “Immediate Expansion of American Timber Production” seeks to erode Endangered Species Act (ESA) protection rules in favor of the expansion of tree felling across 280 million acres of United States national forests, as well as other public lands, for timber, reported The Guardian.

“This Trump executive order is the most blatant attempt in American history by a president to hand over federal public lands to the logging industry,” said wildfire scientist Chad Hanson with the John Muir Project. “What’s worse, the executive order is built on a lie, as Trump falsely claims that more logging will curb wildfires and protect communities, while the overwhelming weight of evidence shows exactly the opposite.”

The order goes as far as setting an annual target for the amount of timber offered for sale, along with other measures, which could lead to widespread clear-cutting, a press release from Earthjustice said.

The announcement follows last week’s appointment of Tom Schultz as the new chief of the U.S. Forest Service. Schultz is a former executive of timber company Idaho Forest Group.

“Naming a corporate lobbyist to run the agency tasked with overseeing the last old growth left in the U.S. makes it clear that the Trump administration’s goal isn’t to preserve our national forests, but to sell them off to billionaires and corporate polluters,” said Anna Medema, Sierra Club’s associate director of legislative and administrative advocacy for forests and public lands, as The Guardian reported.

The action is similar to a recent move by Trump that used an obscure committee to advance fossil fuel projects that put threatened species at risk. According to experts, this disregard for ESA rules is likely illegal.

The order says it is “vital” to reverse what it calls “heavy-handed federal policies” and “increase domestic timber production to protect our national and economic security.”

“This executive order sets in motion a chainsaw free-for-all on our federal forests. Americans treasure our forests for all the benefits they provide, such as recreation, clean air, and clean drinking water. But this order ignores these values and opens the door for wild lands to be plundered, for nothing more than corporate gain. In the long run, this will worsen the effects of climate change, while also destroying critical wildlife habitat,” said Blaine Miller-McFeeley, senior legislative representative of the Earthjustice policy and legislation team, in the press release.

Trump’s latest executive order specifies that logging projects can be expedited if they are purportedly intended to reduce wildfire risk by “thinning” vegetation, reported The Guardian. However, the razing of forests, especially those with established, fire-resistant trees, has been said by scientists to actually increase the risk of fast-moving wildfires.

Hanson explained that logging creates drier and hotter conditions that alter a forest’s microclimate, helping wildfires to spread faster.

“People deserve smart, science-driven solutions that truly protect their forests and communities, but don’t let it fool you – President Trump’s forest executive order isn’t the solution. It’s a short-sighted giveaway for extractive industries,” said Josh Hicks, director of conservation campaigns for The Wilderness Society.

The ESA laws that Trump is attempting to circumvent protect roughly 400 species that live in national forests, including threatened and near-threatened species such as grizzly bears, wild salmon and spotted owls.

Environmental groups warned that increased logging could also pollute millions of people’s water supply.

“Trump’s order will unleash the chainsaws and bulldozers on our federal forests. Clearcutting these beautiful places will increase fire risk, drive species to extinction, pollute our rivers and streams, and destroy world-class recreation sites,” said Randi Spivak, the Center for Biological Diversity’s public lands policy director. “This is a particularly horrific move by Trump to loot our public lands by handing the keys to big business.”

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