As world leaders gather at COP29 in Azerbaijan to discuss climate action, scientists are questioning whether keeping global warming limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages is even still within reach.

Already, warming is slated to be above 1.5 degrees Celsius for the 2024 calendar year for the first time, according to a recent report by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). That report also noted that 2024 is likely to be the warmest year on record, even hotter than 2023, which currently holds the record for hottest year. Further, from June 2023 through May 2024, temperatures reached more than 1.63 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial averages for 12 consecutive months.

Now, the science shows that limiting warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal outlined in the Paris Agreement is becoming less and less likely. Some experts warn that we may already be past the point of limiting warming.

“The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5C is deader than a doornail. It’s almost impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve just waited too long to act,” Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe and a research scientist at Berkeley Earth, told The Guardian. “We are speeding past the 1.5C line an accelerating way and that will continue until global emissions stop climbing.”

The 1.5 degrees Celsius target was set in the Paris Agreement, an international treaty negotiated at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in 2015 and signed in 2016. The target was set to avoid catastrophic impacts of climate change, such as more frequent and intense events like flooding, hurricanes, droughts, heat waves and wildfires. 

As a 2022 study found, passing 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming could also lead to multiple climate tipping points, including ocean circulation breakdowns, Amazon rainforest dieback, massive coral reef die-offs, sea ice and ice sheet collapses and more.

The UN noted that monthly and even annual breaches of the 1.5-degree limit do not necessarily mean we’ve passed the Paris Agreement benchmark, but we are getting closer to breaching it in the long term, which is what could lead to irreversible impacts.

Richard Betts, climate scientist at the University of Exeter in the UK, told NPR that passing the benchmark is “a matter of when, not if.” 

Andrew Jarvis, a climate scientist at Lancaster University, told NPR that the world was likely to pass the target within the next 10 years, but current methods of measuring for warming compared to pre-industrial times are focused on 20-year timeframes that look backward, meaning we could miss the mark well before we realize it through measurements.

According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)’s Emissions Gap Report, released in October 2024, the world will need to reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 to stay within the 1.5-degree benchmark. A separate report released last week found that current policies will lead to a rise, not a reduction, in emissions that could lead to 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100. 

Ultimately, scientists have said that immediate and immense climate action will be needed to minimize warming as much as possible, with every fraction of a degree of warming avoided making a meaningful difference.

“We are edging ever closer to tipping points in the climate system that we won’t be able to come back from; it’s uncertain when they will arrive, they are almost like monsters in the darkness,” said Grahame Madge, UK Met Office spokesperson, as reported by The Guardian. “If we can’t achieve 1.5C, it will be better to get 1.6C than 1.7C, which will be better than getting 2C or more.”

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A new report by the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University explains the high cost that would come to the U.S. if the incoming Trump administration repeals existing climate policies.

According to the report, Donald Trump’s plans to undo climate policies would cost the U.S. billions of dollars. Rolling back policies such as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) would create lost opportunities for U.S. manufacturing and trade, leading to job losses, tax revenue declines and losses in exports, the report authors said.

“Our scenario analysis shows that U.S. repeal of the IRA would, in the most likely scenario, harm U.S. manufacturing and trade and create up to $80 billion in investment opportunities for other countries, including major U.S. competitors like China,” the authors wrote. “U.S. harm would come in the form of lost factories, lost jobs, lost tax revenue, and up to $50 billion in lost exports.”

As The Guardian reported, these repealed policies would lead to a loss of opportunities in clean energy for the U.S., while China and other nations will gain money and power when it comes to developing solar and wind energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, battery storage and more. 

In 2023, China already installed more solar panels in one year than the U.S. has in total. As of July 2024, Global Energy Monitor found that China had projects with about 180 gigawatts of utility-scale solar power and 159 gigawatts of wind power in progress, which is about double the capacity of utility-scale renewables under construction compared to the rest of the world.

Even if the U.S. invests more in fossil fuels and strips back investments and progress in clean energy projects under the new administration, the rest of the world is continuing the transition to clean energy, which has already led to economic gains globally. As the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported, clean energy made up 10% of economic growth in 2023, and clean energy accounted for about 80% of new electricity capacity additions last year. There has also been a growth in electrified transportation, with one in five cars sold globally being EVs.

The U.S. will continue to add more renewable energy as it becomes more affordable, but rolling back subsidies and policies on clean energy will mean the country needs to import these products rather than producing them, the report authors warned.

“The U.S. will still install a bunch of solar panels and wind turbines, but getting rid of those policies would harm the U.S.’s bid for leadership in this new world,” Bentley Allan, co-author of the report and an environmental and political policy expert at Johns Hopkins University, told The Guardian. “The energy transition is inevitable and the future prosperity of countries hinges on being part of the clean energy supply chain. If we exit the competition, it will be very difficult to re-enter.”

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In a new study, scientists tested soil samples from residential and play areas in the Greater Fifth Ward, a neighborhood of Houston, Texas and found high concentrations of lead.

The researchers tested for heavy metals and metalloids, such as lead, arsenic and mercury. While the levels for most of the heavy metals and metalloids appeared in line or lower than usual for urban locations, the average amount of lead was higher than the typical amount of lead present in soil in Texas. The team published their findings in Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology.

The scientists found a median of 400 milligrams of lead per kilogram of soil in seven samples from play areas and 1,200 milligrams per kilogram in three residential soil samples. But the actual amount of lead could be even higher, as the team did not account for lead-based paint or vehicle fuel.

“Heavy metals and metalloids have been extensively studied and regulated over the past 50 years, but evidence is growing that contact is more prevalent than previously thought, especially in so-called cancer clusters like the Greater Fifth Ward, where most residents are socioeconomically disadvantaged racial and ethnic minorities,” Dr. Garett Sansom, an author of the study and research assistant professor at the Texas A&M School of Public Health, said in a statement.

Downtown Houston and the Greater Fifth Ward seen on Feb. 24, 2019. Adam Reeder / Flickr

For the study, researchers partnered with Coalition of Community Organizations and IMPACT GFW and worked with local residents to conduct the testing. They collected 193 soil samples and tested them for lead, barium, chromium, arsenic, cadmium, selenium, mercury and silver. Lead, barium and chromium had the highest concentrations, but only lead was at a higher level than expected for a city.

As reported by Houston Landing, the Greater Fifth Ward neighborhood is part of a “cancer cluster” area with contaminated soil and groundwater that has exposed residents to higher risks of cancer and other diseases for decades.

In 2023, Houston officials passed a $5 million plan to offer money to residents in the area to voluntarily relocate, because of 110 houses near the former Union Pacific Railroad site. But as Houston Landing reported, development in the Greater Fifth Ward has still pushed forward, and many residents are moving to the area with no warning of the contamination.

Researchers and community members worked together to create mailers that were sent to residents to inform them of the study results, and a town hall also notified residents and provided more information. 

In concluding the study, researchers warned that the high concentrations of lead discovered in the samples require a deeper investigation, and they highlighted the importance of working with the community to do this work.

“This study provided a baseline that could aid the development of environmental protection programs,” Sansom said. “In addition, the involvement of community partners was critical to its success and should be used as a model for future research with vulnerable populations and other direct stakeholders.”

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According to a new report by the International Chamber of Commerce and consultancy firm Oxera, extreme weather events over the past 10 years have cost a total of $2 trillion globally. The countries that have faced the biggest losses include the U.S., China and India.

The report tracked nearly 4,000 extreme weather events from 2014 through 2023. In total, the results found that these events affected more than 1.6 billion people and cost around $2 trillion in economic losses.

Over just the past two years, losses linked to extreme weather cost the world $451 billion. According to the report, that is about 19% more than the losses from the previous 8 years analyzed in the study.

“The data from the past decade shows definitively that climate change is not a future problem: major productivity losses from extreme weather events are being felt in the here and now by the real economy,” John W.H. Denton AO, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce, said in a statement.

The report also warned about the increase in frequency of these extreme weather events, noting that there has been an 83% increase in climate disasters when comparing 1980–1999 to 2000–2019. 

Extreme weather-related losses can affect a wide range of sectors and may include direct impacts, such as property and infrastructure destruction, agricultural losses, premature deaths and injuries and more. From there, these problems can lead to indirect impacts, such as more strain on healthcare systems, supply chain disruptions and productivity loss. As such, the economic losses over the past decade can be hard to measure accurately and may be much greater than the $2 trillion accounted for in this report.

Data shows that the lowest income countries in the world have the smallest contributions of emissions and are hardest hit by the impacts of climate change. The International Chamber of Commerce warned that a single extreme weather event could lead to costs that are higher than some countries’ entire GDP for the year, and lower income countries faced higher losses per capita compared to wealthier nations.

“The main caveat is that these numbers actually miss the impact where it truly matters, in poor communities and in vulnerable countries,” Ilan Noy, a disaster economist who was not involved in the study, told The Guardian. Noy explained that losses in low-income countries can be even longer lasting on these communities compared to losses in high-income countries.

But the new report from the International Chamber of Commerce could still put pressure on high-income countries by outlining the economic impact of their major share of emissions that cause climate change. According to World Resources Institute, China, the U.S. and India are the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters, making up about 42.6% of global emissions. The U.S. lost $934.7 billion over the 10-year period, followed by China with $267.9 billion in losses and India with $112.2 billion in losses. 

As the International Chamber of Commerce noted, “Climate inaction comes at a high price to us all.”

The report authors hope that the findings will inspire stronger, more immediate climate action from countries, particularly with the report published just before the start of COP29.

“The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference cannot be — as some have suggested — a ‘transitional’ COP,” Denton said. “We need to see outcomes capable of accelerating climate action commensurate with the immediate economic risks. This must start with a comprehensive package to accelerate the deployment of finance to ensure that all countries can transition towards low-carbon and climate-resilient development without further delay.”

“Simply put, the time for action is now,” Denton added.

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The UK government set out plans this week for one the country’s largest heat networks, which is slated to provide low-carbon heat to about 1,000 buildings in central London. 

The network is part of a £1 billion ($1.29 billion) initiative to provide low-carbon heating throughout Westminster, a city and governmental hub within Greater London. The heat network was established by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and Westminster Council.

As The Guardian reported, the plan will be developed by Hemiko and Vital Energi as part of the South Westminster Area Network partnership, which will invest £1 billion over the next 6 years into developing this network.

As explained by the UK Department for Business, Energy, & Industrial Strategy, a heat network is a form of centralized heating ideal for high-density areas that eliminates the need for boilers and electric heaters in individual buildings. According to the department, heat networks are one of the most affordable options for reducing heating-related emissions. The savings are passed on to consumers, with about a 30% savings when swapping an individual electric heater to join a heat network.

The scheme could save about 75,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year, The Guardian reported.

The project is able to supply low-carbon heating by drawing otherwise wasted heat from the London Underground transportation system, the sewers and the River Thames. The waste heat will be pulled through a network of pipes and dispensed to buildings in Westminster for central heating and water heaters. Rather than electric heaters or boilers, buildings will have a heat exchanger to dispense heat supplied by the network.

“Taking waste heat from the River Thames and London Underground to heat such iconic places as the Houses of Parliament and the National Portrait Gallery is a really exciting example of what lies ahead on our journey to low-cost, low-carbon heating,” said Miatta Fahnbulleh, minister for energy consumers at DESNZ, as reported by the BBC. “This project will help support hundreds of jobs and make bold new strides towards boosting our energy security.”

Currently, only around 3% of the UK sources heat through heat networks, but these networks are expected to be an important part of reducing fossil fuel reliance and reaching the country’s goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. By then, heat networks could meet 19% or more of heat demand in the country.

The first heat from the network is expected to be supplied in 2026, according to a press release from infrastructure consulting firm AECOM, which is involved with the project. The full network is expected to be complete by 2050.

“Heat networks are crucial to the UK’s energy transition,” said Channa Karunaratne, head of heat networks at AECOM. “We need to move away from fossil fuels, work towards energy independence and enable growth in our buildings and places, and heat networks are a vital part of the solution.”

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